Category: Financial Modeling

Richmond Parkway Transit Center Study

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Client: Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District (AC Transit)

(c) 2009, Wikimedia user "Wishfulanthony" / Used with permission under Creative Commons Attribution Share-Alike 3.0 Unported license.
(c) 2009, Wikimedia user “Wishfulanthony” / Used with permission under Creative Commons Attribution Share-Alike 3.0 Unported license.

The Richmond Parkway Transit Center is a park-and-ride facility owned by Caltrans, maintained by AC Transit, and utilized by multiple transit operators as well as private carpoolers in the I-80 corridor.  AC Transit asked a team led by ARUP to re-evaluate the feasibility of earlier plans to expand the facility by building a 600-space garage on the site.

Transportation Analytics conducted the financial analysis that synthesized the conclusions and assumptions of the engineering and technical work earlier in the study.  Our flexible spreadsheet model provided the ability to test multiple scenarios and conduct sensitivity analyses.  The model showed the impact of AC Transit policies such as the requirement to include the re-capitalization costs and demonstrated the implications of different inflation assumptions.  Testing a wide variety of options provided reassurance to decision-makers about the merits of a down-sized approach.

Coordinated SRTP & Corridor Study

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Client: Solano Transportation Authority (STA)

(c) 2013, Wikimedia user "WikiLeon" / Used with permission under Creative Commons Attribution Share-Alike 3.0 Unported license.
(c) 2013, Wikimedia user “WikiLeon” / Used with permission under Creative Commons Attribution Share-Alike 3.0 Unported license.

As an outgrowth of the Bay Area’s regional Transit Sustainability Project, Solano County transportation officials sponsored a project to coordinate planning for the five transit operators in the County by aligning their Short Range Transportation Plans into a single composite effort.  The study also focused on comprehensive planning for the Solano Express intercity bus services jointly funded by multiple jurisdictions in Solano County.

Transportation Analytics prepared the bulk of the financial sections for each operator’s SRTP, including 10-year operating budget forecasts, year-by-year capital programs, and detailed fleet plans.  While each transit operator maintained responsibility for their own performance metrics and service planning, a significant effort was made to harmonize forecast assumptions and key inputs across jurisdictions.  In particular, the integrated financial model developed for this project that accounted for the evolving details of Solano Express service plan, fleet replacement, and financial contributions.  The model also showed the combined capital program for all five operators and identified the total unfunded capital need by project type, which will help STA advocate for funding more effectively in the future.

TIGER Grant Benefit-Cost Analysis

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Client: Transbay Joint Powers Authority (TJPA)

TransbayConstruction
(c) 2013, Transportation Analytics

The TJPA is replacing the former Transbay Terminal with a new $4 billion dollar Transbay Transit Center that will ultimately house ten local and inter-city transit operators and be the northern terminus of the California High Speed Rail.  As part of its efforts to accelerate the construction schedule, TJPA  applied to the U.S. Department of Transportation for a TIGER grant to fund the AC Transit Bus Storage Facility.

Transportation Analytics was responsible for the Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) for the grant application in both 2012 (TIGER IV) and 2013 (TIGER V).  The BCA quantified and monetized national-scope benefits in three areas: increased economic competitiveness due to operating cost savings, improvements in safety due to reduced need to dead-head buses in the off-peak, and the value of environmental benefits (primarily emissions reductions) from reduced bus VMT.  Although the TJPA has not yet been successful in receiving a funding award from this highly competitive program, DOT staff have confirmed that the Benefit-Cost Analysis clearly communicated the value of the project and satisfied their rigorous evaluation requirements.

Bayview Hunters Point Mobility Study

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Client: San Francisco County Transportation Authority (SFCTA)

BVHP_MobilityStudyCover

Numerous community-based organizations (CBOs) serve the residents of Bayview Hunters Point in San Francisco and provide transportation to their youth & senior program clients.  This project brought together neighborhood stakeholders with multiple city organizations to collaboratively develop a business plan for a shared van shuttle service that would offer improved mobility and connections within the community while maximizing use of scarce resources.

Transportation Analytics provided all of the financial analysis for the business plan.  Early tasks focused on a benchmarking evaluation of the CBOs’ current transportation costs, both individually and in terms of the total resources being spent on transportation services.  Based on the proposed operating plan for the shared service, Transportation Analytics created a   financial model that demonstrated estimated costs for prospective participants under multiple scenarios.  The business plan is now being used as the basis for development of formal MOUs in preparation for detailed service planning activities.

EBBP: Express Bus Business Plan

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Client: Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA)

Proposed Express Bus Network

This study was part of VTA’s Comprehensive Operations Analysis (COA), a market-based effort to systematically review all transit services in the County, in this case highway-based commuter bus services.  Major employers in Silicon Valley have begun to offer high quality transportation options to help attract good employees, and VTA wanted to evaluate their own services with the goal of growing ridership and partnering with employers to offer a comprehensive transit network.  After the team completed the market analysis and strategic direction assessment, Transportation Analytics provided the financial analysis of operating costs and revenues that helped shape the proposed 2015 Operating Plan.  In particular, we developed an interactive planning tool that was used to identify a cost-neutral scenario, and we quantified the impact of multiple options for interim deployment of network improvements.  The first phase of route improvements launched in early 2012.

MAPS: Mobility, Access, & Pricing Study

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Client: San Francisco County Transportation Authority (SFCTA)

Transportation Analytics was part of the PBS&J-led consultant team that conducted the preliminary feasibility evaluation of implementing congestion charging in the City of San Francisco.  The Study Team explored how different charging schemes might be able to mitigate traffic congestion, reduce air pollution, and develop a revenue stream to help improve local transit operations.  In December, 2010, the SFCTA Board accepted the initial study and recommended moving forward with the next stage of planning activities.  Transportation Analytics had a multi-faceted role on the project including:

  • financial analysis of potential pricing scenarios, including a revenue snapshot screening tool and a 30-year cash flow model
  • providing expertise in financing alternatives
  • modeling the financial impact and sensitivity of different pricing policies
  • supporting the analysis of transit system performance impacts
  • communicating the implications of various operating assumptions
  • preparing major portions of the final report

Light Rail Transit System Analysis

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Client: Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA)

(c) 2010, WikiCommons user XAtsukex. Some rights reserved.

Santa Clara County is expected to experience considerable population and employment growth over the next 20 years, and travel patterns may be significantly altered with the much-anticipated arrival of BART.  This study was Phase 2 of VTA’s Comprehensive Operations Analysis (COA), a market-based effort to systematically review all transit services in the County.  Transportation Analytics was a key part of the consulting team, facilitating the early technical workshops on conceptual alternatives and working with VTA staff to bring these alternatives through a three phase refinement process.  At each stage, the team worked together to analyze data on ridership, revenues, user benefits, required capital investments, and estimated operating costs.  Ms. Dorinson’s role on the project was to synthesize these results and help develop recommendations for near-term and long-term changes to the LRT network.  Once final scenarios were established, she conducted a cost-benefit analysis that measured the relative impact of each potential project scenario and prioritize capital projects for future implementation.  The initial recommendations for re-structuring the LRT network were approved by the VTA Board in May, 2010 and the Phase 1 service changes were implemented in October, 2010.

Sponsorship Program Feasibility Study

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Client: Golden Gate Bridge Highway & Transportation District

Transportation Analytics worked closely with the firm Sponsorship Strategies to investigate the feasibility of creating an innovative philanthropic-style sponsorship program whereby individuals and corporations could contribute towards to the preservation and enhancement of the Bridge as a tourist attraction, as well as support educational and interpretive features for visitors.  Transportation Analytics developed a scenario model allowing for the comparison of different combinations of features, benefits, and public-private partnership structures.  The model was able to demonstrate the implications of different policy options for Board-level review and formally quantify the true revenue potential of this controversial proposal.